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India set for an above normal monsoon (Analysed from The Hindu)

Indian Meteorological department ( IMD) Predictions

1. Indian Meteorological department has predicted that the monsoon is likely to be “above normal” at around 106 per cent of average rainfall of 89 cm. Monsoon rains within 96 per cent and 104 per cent of average rainfall are considered normal.

2. Some regions would experience floods. The chances of drought defined as a deficit of 10 percent or more are only one percent. In any given year, the chances of drought are 16 per cent.

Basis of Predictions:

1. Neutralisation of El- Nino conditions: El- Nino- a global meteorological phenomenon associated with warming of the waters of central pacific and is correlated with droughts in India is set to end.

It is seen that in 7 out of 10 years following El-Nino, normal or above normal rains take place.

2.  Setting of La- Nina conditions: La- Nina – a global meteorological phenomenon associated with Cooling of waters of Central Pacific, associated with heavy rains in India, is expected to set this year

3. Indian Ocean Dipole:  where the western portions of the Indian Ocean are warmer than the east and thereby push rain bearing clouds over India- is also likely to form during south-west monsoon.



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