Australia’s weather bureau said that the prevalent El Nino conditions among the strongest in history and responsible for two years of consecutive droughts and record summer temperatures in India has ended.
According to the IMD, the monsoon is likely to set in on June 7 over Kerala about one week late. This is partly due to a depression in the Bay of Bengal that morphed into cyclone Roanu and brought heavy rains to Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Odisha.
While this seems good for the monsoon, weather officials in India said this could also be a precursor to floods during August and September and monsoon possibly spilling over to October.
Changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%,”
About El Nino & La Nina:
El Nino is marked by above-average temperatures in the Pacific that begin to cool down followed by a neutral phase before transitioning into La Nina, a phenomenon of below-normal temperatures. La Nina brings heavy rain over India.
Gains for agriculture:
Private weather agency Skymet said that it expected all of the monsoon months, except June, to record rains well above what’s usual and would translate into gains for Indian agriculture.
According to experts, in the year 2016, the total area under kharif food grains is expected to increase by 15 to 20% over last year. Area under oilseeds including soybean, groundnut, pulses (tur, moong and urad) and rice may also increase whereas area under cotton may reduce marginally while total agricultural land under sugarcane may remain the same as previous year.