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Monsoon may hit Kerala by May-end: Skymet (analyzed from The Times of India, relevant for GS I and III, Topic: Monsoon and related concepts)

The southwest monsoon (June-September) is likely to reach the Kerala coast at least a few days ahead of usual schedule of June 1. This was forecasted by private weather forecaster Skymet. It further predicted monsoon is likely to reach over Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 18 and May 20. Thereafter, southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala between May 28 – 30 and simultaneously covering some parts of northeast India.

Monsoon Predictions:

The predictors that forecasters  uses for the monsoons forecast are: 

1.    temperature difference between surface temperatures in the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans; 
2.    surface temperature of the Indian Ocean near the equator; 
3.    mean sea level pressure in the Pacific Ocean near East Asia;
4.    land temperatures over northwest Europe; and the volume of warm water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 

Different Models to predict monsoons:

Statistical model:

It tries to match prevailing conditions with historical records to see how the monsoon had behaved in years when similar conditions had prevailed. 

Dynamical model:

This model makes continuous observation of some selected physical phenomena, and notes how the conditions for monsoon behave over a period of time. It then follows those changes to predict for the future, and comes up with a forecast.

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