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Why demographic disaster is looming (analysed from the UNDP report) (relevant for GS paper III . Topic: demographic dividend)

INDIA will need to generate 28 crore jobs between now and 2050, the year when the working-age population (15 to 64) will peak, amid indicators that the country’s demographic dividend could be at the cusp of disaster.

Despite unprecedented growth from 1991 to 2013, only half of Indians who sought jobs actually got them.

Five warning signs:

1.     Slowdown in country’s organised sector

Employment shrank over two quarters in 2015, the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis, according to the latest data from the Labour Bureau.

 

2.     93% jobs available in unorganised sector

According to the Economic Survey 2015-16, the informal sector accounted for 90 per cent of jobs through 2004-05 to 2011-12.
This is going to increase marginally to 92-93 per cent in 2017, according to a report by the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector (NCEUS).

 

3.     Menial rural labour on the rise

From 2001 to 2011, the number of farmers fell 7 per cent, from 12.76 crore to 11.86 crore. Over the same period, agricultural labourers increased 34 per cent, from 10.75 crore to 14.43 crore.

Agricultural growth plummeted over the last two years, with many quarters registering a contraction (negative)  in growth.

4.     Difficulty in finding year-round work
Only 60.5 per cent of the working population (above 15) was able to find work through the year.

Underemployment affects youth the most. Of 100 persons aged above 30, only two persons report being fully unemployed, while in the 18-29 age group, 13 in 100 are unemployed, noted the survey.

Education only appears to increase the prospect of unemployment.

 

5.     Dip in number of jobs per company

The growth of eight core industries — coal, oil, oil products, gas, electricity, fertiliser, steel and cement is now at the lowest in last 10 years.

Industrial growth of the last decade shows a slump during the 2008 crisis; it recovers and again goes south till 2015-16.

The number of companies registered every year is down to 2008 levels, an indication of business uncertainty.



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